could just be setting the stage for the future electoral faceoff. candidates, you have five seconds to give your opening message. >> i am god. ♪ why can't you see, you belong with me ♪ >> thanks for spending your sunday morning with us, fareed zakaria gps starts right now. this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. we'll start today's show with saudi arabia. just what did the desert kingdom have to do with the disappearance of journalist jamal khashoggi? >> where is the young crown prince leading the country?

why does president trump consider the u.s.-saudi relationship so important. also, the new cold war with china. how did washington's relationship with beijing get so bad. and what does the big chill mean for china, for america and the world? >> we've been talking a lot in recent days about the supreme court, midterm elections, immigration policy. but the trump administration's most significant decisions will be about u.s. policy toward china the big question is whether they will be marked by cooperation or conflict. the last time there was such a question, when britain confronted a rising germany 150 years ago, things did not work out so well. since the end of the cold war, we've been living in an era of

almost no genuine great power competition, which has led to emergence of the dynamic global economy and a huge expansion of international travel, trade, culture and contact. and all this happened under america's uncontested supremacy, military, political, economic and cultural. well, that age is over. 25 years ago, china made up less than 2% of global gdp. today that figure is 15%, second only to america's 24%. in the next decade or so, the chinese economy will surpass the size of america's, according to the center for economics and business research, already nine of the 20 most valuable tech companies in the world are based in china. beijing has also become far more active on the global stage, ramping up defense spending, foreign aid and international cultural missions. the trump administration has

many of the right instincts on china. beijing has taken advantage of free trade and america's desire to integrate china into the system. the administration is right to push back and try to get a fundamentally different altitude from china. but instincts don't make for a grand strategy. for washington to be more strategic it would have allied on trade with europe, japan and canada and presented china with a united front, it would have embraced the transpacific partnership as a way to provide pacific countries an alternative to the chinese economic system but in place of a strategy, the administration simply presents divisions. on the one side are people like treasury secretary steve mnuchin who wanted to use tough talk in tariffs to extract a better deal for from china while staying within the basic framework of the international trading system others like trade advisor peter navarro would prefer the u.s. and china are far less

intertwined. this would mean a more tense international order. vice president mike pence recently gave a fiery speech that came close to declaring that we're in a new cold war with china. an outright labelling of china as the enemy would be a seismic shift in american strategy and would certainly trigger a chinese response. it would lead us to a divided, unstable and less prosperous world. history tells us that china is the main rival for superpower status, the best way to handle the challenge lies less in tariffs and military threats and more in revitalization at home. the united states prevailed over the soviet union not because it waged a long war in vietnam or funded the contras in nicaragua but because it had a fundamentally more vibrant and productive political economic model. the soviet threat pushed america

to build the highway system, put a man on the moon and fund science and technology. tariffs and military maneuvers might be fine at a tactical level but they don't address the core challenge. the united states needs to rebuild its infrastructure which you are, fix its educational system, spend money on basic scientific research and solve the political dysfunctions that have made its model so much less appealing around the world these days. if china is a threat, that is the best response. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "washington post" column this week and let's get starte started. >> we'll get back to china but i wanted to go to our main story, the stock market in saudi arabia plunged today and saudi officials promised to retaliate

against any international sanctions imposed on the kingdom. this comes almost two weeks after the disappearance of the journalist jamal khashoggi. he was last seen entering the saudi consulate in istanbul. the international community is demanding answers about jamal's fate as saudi officials continue to categorically deny any involvement in his disappearance. i have a terrific panel to talk about it all. emery slaugter is the president and ceo think tank. we have the president of the chicago council on foreign affairs, a former u.s. ambassador nato, the co-author of "the empty throne, america's abdication of global leadership. a and max boot is a fellow at the council of foreign relations, a cnn global affairs

analyst and the author of a new book "the corrosion of conservatism, why i left the right." all right. let me start with you, max. this is a terrific book but i know a lot about it. so this seems to be causing a lot of problems for saudis. do you think they anticipated this? >> i don't know if they anticipated the blow back but i assume the reason they did it is because they thought they could get away with it. jamal khashoggi was somebody who annoyed the saudi royal family because he criticized them and they don't like criticism so they thought they could get away with this.

donald trump is somebody who refers to the media as an enemy of the people. he has praise for dictators, he says he loves kim jong-un, he plays rodrigo duterte in the philippines for the way he's handing the drug problem and he's been enamored o the crown prince of saudi arabia. look at their feud with qatar, look at the fact that they kidnapped the prime minister of lebanon. now they here in a feud with canada and we're not standing up for canada, we're not standing up for other countries that are getting the rough treatment from saudi arabia so i assume they thought well, we can get rid of this pesky reporter and donald trump won't care but what we're finding out is whether donald trump cares or not, a lot of people in washington do care.

>> tarek, you're not only a great scholar of the middle east but you grew up in saudi arabia. i'm struck by the fact that jamal khashoggi is not some radical anti-monarchical crazy. he worked for turkey -- the saudi ambassador to both the u.s. and britain. what does this tell us about what's going on in saudi arabia? >> stipulating that we don't know what happened with jamal but it increasingly looks bad you're right. he was not a dissident from a marginalized community in saudi arabia. he was a member establishment. so to see him run afoul of the monarchy suggests there's a deep

cleavage within that establishment. if jamal khashoggi is now the enemy of the state there's a serious problem in saudi arabia and it suggests that there are others at the elite level who have similar views and who are similarly unhappy with the regime. if you read the columns in the "washington post," this was not a guy who is against the saudi monarchy. this was a guy that is giving advice saying you should do this, you should open up a bit. but hisover ri overriding conce the perreservation of that monarchy. jamal has said things we wouldn't characterize as liberal. in 2016 when the saudi arab government executed preacher jamal khashoggi supported that, he said this person was a traitor. so this guy because he was a

faithful son of saudi arabia, a member of its loyal opposition in self-imposed exile it's puzzling to me why they saw him as such a threat. >> we have a short period of time. what should the u.s. do? >> i would say that's why jamal khashoggi is more dangerous than somebody all the way out. he had real currency with the people mohammed bin salman cared about which is the folks in washington, the newspaper columnist. but the u.s. has to draw a clear line. i think saudi arabia is countering on outrage fatigue. we have to draw a line. congress has to activate and act against saudi arabia even if the trump white house won't. >> we will come back and talk about more about this, about saudi arabia and what it generally says about stability in the middle east when we come back.

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get published now, call for your free publisher kit today! we are back with ann marie slaughter, tarek masood max boot talking about saudi arabia. you were saying you think the u.s. should get tough and enact sanctions against saudi arabia. is that likely to happen? there are a lot of people who think saudi arabia is so rich, it has so much money you already see wilt the saudi investment conference while media organizations are pulled out. no big banks have pulled out, no big financial institutions that are hoping to get saudi arabia di money pulled out. >> uber has pulled out which is interesting in terms of their

perception and their customer base because younger people are pushing. i think that's the bet. that's the bet on the part of the saudi government, this will pass. it's also in donald trump's approach to the world where he says every nation pursues its own interests. we pursue ours, others pursue others, this is what happens. russians murder people in britain but at some point that has to be a line. the idea of living in a world where governments without any restraint murder their political opponents is not a world that ultimately the united states wants to live in. there's a bipolar coalition in congress as there has been against russia for what they've done in britain that can draw that line. >> talk about the extonight

which this is complicated by the fact that we don't have an ambassador in saudi arabia, we don't have an assistant state department. diplomacy isn't just about what the president says to the king, it's what's going on on a day to day basis. >> in some ways the policy that the united states has pursued since the beginning of this administration towards saudi arabia has been helped by a very small group of people. the president, his son-in-law jared kushner and that's it. there's no ambassador. no one has been nominated, there's no assistant secretary, the secretary of state rex tillerson tried to drive the policy in a different direction and no one in the white house listened. he was sacked. secretary mattis has been trying to drive in the a different direction when it came to the issue of qatar where we have more than 10,000 servicemen and

yet saudi arabia has a major confrontation with the qataris, the future of policy toward the arab world yet policy in washington is determined by a small group of people when it comes to saudi arabia which is why even if there is a pushback as we've seen from president trump, i don't think it will last, the reality is that there has been a strong relationship wi with mbs and the white house. unless there's a change in saudi arabia, i don't see a change coming from washington. >> saudi arabia dis have responded vigorously to the hint of any kind of western retaliati retaliation. there was a statement from a responsible source, an authoritative service. it was released by the news agency that said yes, these attempts to harm saudi arabia will not be dealt with lightly. we'll respond to them as

vigorously or more vigorously than they are so if -- i think ivo is right. if there's anything likely to disrupt this kind of posturing, both of these sides seem very sensitive and prone to taking slights seriously so this could be an excollation. when mohammed bin salman came here, it was being celebrated as a reformer. it's like going from steve jobs to elizabeth holmes in theranos. so bin salman has to be wondering what has hatched to my reputati

reputation. >> a close american ally seems to have, again alleged to have murdered an american resident. three of his kids are american citizens in the -- in a nato country in turkey and the united states seems not particularly concern concerned. >> this is the complete and case of american moral leadership, something i've associated with the republican party. that's part of the reason why i became a republican in the 1980s and it's shocking to see a republican president who has no interest in leading on these issues, donald trump seems to view the presidency and the united states as being the trump organization, a way to make money so he says, you know, we can't do anything to saudi arabia because we're selling $110 billion worth of arms. no, we're not. the figure is lower but even if it were, are we willing to sell out our principles, everything we stand for as a country in

order to increase arms sales? that's the amoral behavior we expect from from a china or russia. america's strength has always been that we stand for something greater. donald trump is sacrificing what makes america great but he doesn't understand what that greatness is all about. >> stay with us. next on gps, deaths from many infectious diseases are way down. that sounds like great news, right? it is but there is a but and i'll tell you about it when we come back. and then i'll bring the panel back and we'll talk about america's new cold war. this time with china. y. went to ancestry, i put in the names of my grandparents first. i got a leaf right away. a leaf is a hint that is connected to each person in your family tree. i learned that my ten times great grandmother is george washington's aunt. within a few days i went from knowing almost nothing to holy crow,

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hiv/aids deaths are down from 42%. these diseases are far from being eradicated but the downward trend the same for virtually every major infectious disease. the herculean efforts of aid organizations like usaid and the gates foundation have paid off tremendous tremendous tremendously. however there is bad news. that progress turns out to be the easy part by. 2020, non-communicable diseases like diabetes, heart disease and high blood pressure are projected to cause 70% of deaths in developing countries, up from 47% in 1990 according to the "economist." that might seem obvious given the progress on infectious diseases and the lack of progress on immortality.

life expectancy far 15-year-old in a low income country the is the same as it was 20 years ago. diseases are killing people at a much younger age than in the developed world. why? and what can the international community do to help? stop making the progress worse. as westerners adopt healthier life-style, multinational companies have been aggressively pursuing consumers in emerging markets. a 2015 world health organization report found that the sales of ultra processed food and drinks grew by only 2% in north america since 2000 compared to 71% in the middle east/africa region and 48% in latin america. net revenue for philip morris avenue, the american tobacco giant rose by just 3% in the european union over the last

decade but by 48% in the middle east, africa, and eastern europe. as developed nations go green, they're dumping the dirty fuels on the developing world adding to already dirt y domestic supplies, the u.s. has increased its exports by more than 200,000% to india where air pollution was estimated in 2015 to kill over a million people a year so western companies and the governments that support them need to stop killing the millions of lives that western aid groups are helping to save. meanwhile the aid organizations need to rethink the aid organizations. and they need to keep up this fight. get primary care. but it's been deflected. some experts believe aid groups are undermined the provision of basic care by redirecting

existing health infrastructure and expertise to its fighting specific infectious diseases. defenders say they have laid a strong foundation for health systems by setting up clinics, trading workers and establishing networks for care delivery. it's time to build on that foundation now. today just over 1% of total health aid goes to treating non-communicable diseases. primary care isn't simple or sexy but it saves lives and it can no longer be considered a secondary focus. next on "gps" america's new cold war with china. will there be winners in the struggle? i'll be back with a panel in a moment. and need cold medicine that works fast, the choice is simple. coricidin hbp is the #1 brand that gives powerful cold symptom relief without raising your blood pressure. coricidin hbp. so let's promote our falle a homecomingtravel dealame, on choicehotels.com like this.

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-look, look. -i'm looking. it's easy. you just answer some simple questions online, and you get coverage options to choose from. you're ruining my workout. cycling is my passion. i want to come back to china with this great panel. mike pence gave a speech that was a declaration of a new cold war with china. the speech came after many rounds of tit for tat on tariffs between the two nations. back with me are ann marie slaughter, president and ceo of the think tank new america. ivo daalder, the president of the chicago council on global affairs. tarek masood and max boot, a fellow at cfr and a cnn global affairs analyst. ann marie, are we in a new cold war with china? >> no, it's more helpful to talk about complex competition than

cold war. the cold war was between two superpowers who were deeply separated, we had no cultural or economic ties with the soviet union. it was military. we are intertwined with china in every way, from the number of bonds they hold to our businesses and universities so it's a complex competition. but it's certainly heating up and china is unfairly taking advantage of us as you have written. we have to get tougher with china. this notion that we would integrate them into the post-1945 liberal order and then they would be -- play by the rules isn't true but rather than talking about a new cold war we need to think in a much more varied way about pushing hard on theft of intellectual property and actually working with them in areas we need to work with them and competing on their soft diplomacy not just the military

side, they have this massive belt-and-road initiative where they're talking about spending up to a trillion dollars building infrastructure in southeast asia. we need to be on the ground investing and trading in ways that show there is another way of improving people's lives than just taking chinese money. >> max, does it strike you that -- is the administration and parts of the administration that want a cold war with china? is that -- where do you think donald trump is? this is going to be the big story if we look back if it turns into a confrontation with china will be this new cold war. >> i think the administration is in a state of confusion about china as they are about a lot of issues, fareed. donald trump's primary beef with china seems to be that they have a trade surplus with the united states so they sell us stuff americans like to buy. but guess what?

the trade surplus is going up under trump not down. now there aror people like steve mnuchin who is working on the theft of intellectual property which is a more legitimate issue but guess what happens? if china meets our demands and stops stealing from american companies china will become a more congenial place for american companies to locate their operations which is thes that thing donald trump wants because he hates the ideas of american companies operating offshore. then there are the hard-liners like peter navarro who want a cold war, who want to delink the u.s. and china and that is sending a signal to china that the united states is trying to stop the rise of china. and how do you compromise on that? i think the chinese are confused because they don't know what trump wants or how to satisfy the yielgts so this is a recipe for hostilities escalating and continuing. >> it does seem to me that it's

a different world than the soviet union. we can't really stop the rise of china, can we? >> no, and we shouldn't. what we should be doing is what we have been trying to do for a long time which is to bring china into into a rules-based system and when they violate the rules we need to call them on t it. one of the things donald trump has done rightly is start calling china on the fact they are breaking the rules. they have been building islands in the south china sea for over a decade. there is an international legal ruling and they have continue. xi jinping told barack obama he wasn't going to militarize those places and they did so we need to push back? one, by having a clear sense of your goals. as max rightly says, everybody is all over the place but the second thing is you need your alli allies. the one thing we have that the chinese don't have is allies.

it makes us powerful. you showed the gdp. the u.s. plus major ally gdp still 50% of global output. the same as in 1945. if the united states were to have a strategy where we bring european allies, asian allies, indians along in a strategy to confront china, not beat them, now find some kind of win which is what the president seems to look for but to get them back into work on the rules that matter. >> tareq, ann tarek, anne-mari about soft power. do people want the american model or the chinese model of soft power? >> that is a big difference between this period and the cold war. i would submit the majority of people in my part of the world,

they wanted to be this, not the soviet union. if you look at the united states and the political system you see the dysfunction s ths that max been talking about. what does china get you? competence, economic development, a miracle of lifting more people out of poverty than ever happened in the shortest period of time. there will be a much larger co-fligs these countries for authoritarian politics instead of democratic politics which is where the future should lie. >> we'll talk more about this.

also two fascinating polls that shed light on what role americans want government to have in global affairs and what the world wants from america. this is a surprising finding when we come back. ♪ that's amore ♪when the world seems to shine ♪like you've had too much wine ♪ that's amore ♪ bells will ring ♪ ting a ling a ling ♪ ting a ling a ling more to love. applebee's new neighborhood pastas. now that's eatin' good in the neighborhood.

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two recent polls shed interesting light on america's role in the world, the chicago council of foreign affairs found american citizens are not on board with donald trump's pullback from the world stage. 70% of respondents -- an all time high -- say they want the u.s. to taken a active role in world affairs. on the flip side of the coin, the pew research people asked people outside america how they felt about america. while america's image has taken a beating abroad under trump, the poll found the world overwhelmingly prefers america as the world's leading power to

china in that role. my panel joins me to discuss. ivo daalder, you're the head of -- on one of the commissions that headed that survey. what do you think? >> donald trump is making international great again. the reality is it's like oxygen. you don't know it's there until it's gone and people are starting to understand that the ways in which the united states has engaged for 70 years as a global leader, on democracy, on security, on economics, they may not have liked the specifics and at times disliked the specifics but when it's gone you notice what a problem it is. americans play an active role and interestingly enough pew is saying if the alternative is china or russia or chaos, give me the united states, that's a country that believes in rules and adhereses to them and is

trying to extend those and when the u.s. doesn't do that you understand how important the rules are. we never used to talk about rules because we took it for granted, we can't take it for granted anymore. >> and how does this work again with the competition with china? in a way the chinese don't want that kind of rules-based order, but does donald trump? >> china wants different rules, trump wants no rules. he doesn't talk about rules, he talks about sovereignty. his vision is this is great power politics, we are bigger than you are, we are going to create bilateral agreements that are a a function of our relative politics. what america has stood for and countries may not like us but they dislike someone else more.

it has been rules that will constrain us to some extent and that makes thing mrs. predictable and gives a fairer playing ground. >> we look at china as a mono lith, a country that builds great infrastructure, it's a leninist system that has control of 1.3 billion people. >> coupled with dramatic economic growth which tends to unleash all kinds of forces within a society that it's hard to govern by command so color me skeptical that china is going to be able to operate in the world in a way that is threatening and goal oriented. it's got all kinds of problems and i suspect they'll be dealing with political instability in a

a way that might limit that. we need to recognize >> max, the fundamental question that many people have is, can america restore itself? is this an obstacle or a bump or do people look at the way trump is handling the world and say everybody is in it for themselves and i'm going to free lance as well and go for my narrow self interest. that's the europeans and the canadians and the chinese. can america reestablish its moral authority and the rules and things? >> that's going to be very hard to do, fareed. we saw the rise of china and various regimes and donald trump is accelerating that decline. it is shocking to see that vladimir putin and president xi is more popular than the

president of the united states. only 32% of people in mexico have a positive view of the united states. that is doing long-term damage to american standing. it will be hard to reverse. if you are an american ally, why would you trust the united states again. maybe donald trump will be replaced by a more internationalist president, but these forces will still be there and there will be a constituecys an isolationism and why would you trust your security to the united states knowing that you could easily have another trump arising in the future? >> 30 seconds. >> we have a chance to restore the united states, but we have to come up with something better than the world order created in 1945. we need to deliver for your citizens and develop institutions that thifr for all

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definiti definition. it's one tenth, more than a third, a half or roughly two thirds? we will tell you the correct answer. capitalism in america, the history, this takes the reader through the history of the american economy, ending with provocative thoughts about america's declining productivity, declining risk taking and declining dine ammism. the answer is c. the world reached a tipping point for the first time in history. over 50% of the world's population, 3.8 billion people are living in middle class or wealthy households. they point out new middle class is mostly asian. 90% of the next consumers will be in asia. this is good news for some and it means more than half the

world's population is living in households that are vulnerable to poverty, but they predict the numbers will improve by 2030. before we go, i wanted to bring you this. prior to becoming the shoeft w' host, i looked into this and wanted to show you telling clips for some of them. at the time of the interview, jamaal was working for the saudi government as a media adviser to the u.s. jamaal joined me alongside john bradley that had written on saudi arabia. i asked why the government was allied with extremist clerks. >> not extremists, but conservatives. they are afraid of organizations. it is our duty to break that.

this began to happen. now we began to recruit new clergies and new judges, especially with more open minded. >> i pushed back, asking him why not take harsher measures? >> you need to confront these people if you want to rid that kind of extremism. >> at the same time we don't want to break with society. the society suffered polarization between the left and the right, if that's the right way to put it. i would like it as if we want to crush this. we don't want to do this. i would like to see taking harsh measures against those clermg . what if we do that. what if we start arresting

people by the hundreds or the thousands? >> did he have to be careful about speaking out? >> i can say whatever i want to say and i'm saying it. we are changing to the future. >> this is how jamal khashoggi was. he sought irchg relatal reforms in his country. if the reports of his murder are true, it is a tragedy for saudi arabia and the world that he was in fact finally muzzled. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. hello and thank you so much for joining me this sent. we start with the high stakes mystery of a missing journalist and calls for the united states to have a swift definitive response 12 days after he